Abstract: systems for early diagnosis of the financial condition of commercial banks are particularly relevant in the context of economic uncertainty caused by the events of the global COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent decline in economic activity. At present, there is no unified method for early diagnostics of commercial banks, as various internal and external factors may affect the deterioration of their financial condition, banks may differ in the size of their capital, asset structure, and degree of involvement in financial and banking groups. They may have different resource bases, have a certain specialization or be guided by a universal model of activity, and differ in their degree of participation in operations on the global financial market. All these conditions define a set of indicators that should be used when building systems for early diagnostics of the state of banks. Unified foreign diagnostic models are usually based on the CAMELS system and include a minimum set of banking performance indicators, so they can lead to errors in making forecasts of the financial condition of individual banks.
In this article, the author analyzes domestic and foreign systems of early diagnostics of the financial condition of commercial banks. Based on the Bank of Russia’s system for assessing the financial position of banks, proposals and recommendations were formulated to reform it in the light of the current economic situation. The author believes that the economic turbulence caused by the global pandemic will lead to an increase in financial problems for both clients and commercial banks, so when building systems for early diagnosis of the state of banks in our country, special attention should be paid to the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and profitability of individual sectors of the economy.
Keywords: financial stability, CAMELS, bankruptcy, credit risk, assets, early warning systems