USING FUZZY SETS TO MODEL CASH FLOWS IN THE SUPPLY OF COMPONENTS

Abstract: the paper considers the problem of financial planning in cooperation chains for the supply of components and nodes, taking into account the stochasticity of the resulting branched cash flows for buyer enterprises located at any level of the cooperation chain. It is shown that stochastic cash flow can be modeled using elements of fuzzy set theory. Expressions are proposed for determining the values of elements and membership functions for fuzzy sets that model cash flow. It is shown that the cash flow over time will have both deterministic and stochastic (fuzzy) sections. A criterion for optimizing the amount of credit funds used to eliminate the possible insolvency of enterprises-buyers in fuzzy flow sections is proposed. It is shown that there is an increase in the stochasticity and fuzziness of branched cash flows during the transition from the head performer to performers at lower levels for the entire chain of cooperation. It is noted that the probability of violation of the delivery time of products to the final consumer depends on the parameters of stochastic cash flows in the chains of cooperation, determined on the basis of the results of financial control of the entire chain of cooperation on the part of the buyer enterprise located in the center of this chain.

Keyword: cash flows, purchases of components, fuzzy sets

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